World oil workers are ready to abandon the Strait of Hormuz?
World experts warn that in the event of a possible military conflict between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will almost certainly be blocked. As a result, the global oil market will lose 20% of supplies coming from the Gulf countries.
A number of oil and gas companies even plan to suspend the movement of tankers across the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal writes about this with reference to the report of the Saudi national shipping company Bahri.
“Some companies began to think: to supply or not to supply oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, we see that there are no problems, but such risks exist and we need to understand that any such risk, any such interruptions will be a serious test for the oil market and can lead to serious fluctuations, ”said Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin in an interview with the TV channel “Russia 1”.
Oil workers may not worry
However, other experts believe that even a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not lead to a shortage of oil in the world market. As it turns out, the global suppliers of this raw material have a sufficient margin of safety.
Several factors will help to avoid a crisis. First of all, thanks to the OPEC + Vienna deal to reduce production, the cartel formed 3 million barrels per day of free capacity, which can be used up in a short time.
Second factor: reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency. By the way, it was created after the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, which put the world on the brink of an oil “hunger”. Together, the strategic reserves of these countries amount to 1.55 billion barrels.
“In addition, the oil industry holds another 650 million barrels of state obligations, and these volumes can be used if necessary. Thus, the IEA’s emergency reserves are large enough to cover any interruptions in the supply of oil from the Strait of Hormuz for a long period, “the agency said.
In general, industry observers are absolutely sure that the market is well-supplied with oil and reserves OPEC’s facilities can mitigate the problem of possible disruptions in the supply of raw materials.
Third factor: a continuous increase in American shale production. This fact supports the view that the market is well supplied with raw materials. The stability of the market is confirmed by the fact that oil prices rose very weakly even after the news about the capture of a tanker in the Middle East last year.
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