The oil market next week is likely to maintain a positive trend, but serious growth should not be expected. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta by the head of the Otkritie Research analytical department of the Otkritie bank Anna Morina.
April Fool's decision of the OPEC + countries to gradually increase production since May, the oil market has been perceived as a positive signal. Immediately after the announcement of the decision, commodity prices began to rise to above $ 65 a barrel, but then corrected.
“On April 2, there was no trading on the European and American markets due to the holiday due to the Catholic Good Friday. On Monday, the rise in prices may continue. But we do not expect to see the price of $ 70 per barrel of Brent next week, “ explained expert.
At the same time, the general consensus at the moment is that the increase in OPEC + production volumes is in fact rather conservative. And demand will outstrip supply.
The oil market may go down
If the real demand is not enough for such volumes, then the oil market may adjust and go in the range of 60-65 per barrel.
Morina called such a recovery in demand from a fundamental point of view shaky. Especially in the midst of the third wave of COVID-19 and the introduction of new lockdowns in European countries. At the same time, although the world's oil reserves are decreasing, they still exceed the average levels of 2015-2019.
Let us remind you that by the decision of April 1, OPEC + determined further parameters of the transaction. From May, he will ease restrictions to 6.55 million barrels per day. From June – up to 6.2 million, and from July – up to 5.76 million barrels per day.
And taking into account the voluntary contribution of Saudi Arabia, the alliance in April will reduce production by 7.9 million barrels per day, in May – by 7.3 million, in June – by 6.6 million and 5.76 million in July. : ///
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