A ban on the export of gasoline from the Russian Federation may be introduced for three months
A ban on the export of gasoline from Russia may be introduced for three months. This is stated in the draft government decree developed by the Ministry of Energy. The document has been published on the portal of draft regulatory legal acts.
“To establish from the date of entry into force of this resolution for a period of three months a temporary ban on the export of fuels from the Russian Federation according to the list according to the appendix”, – indicates in the draft resolution. The restriction may apply to gasoline grades Ai-80, Ai-92, Ai-95, Ai-98.
The expected date of entry into force of the amendments is June 26, 2021. The ban is supposed not to apply to international transit transportation of foreign fuel through the territory of the Russian Federation.
As well as to Russian fuel transported between parts of the Russian Federation through the territory of foreign states. In addition, it will not apply to fuel exported for the needs of the Russian Ministry of Defense or transported by individuals for personal use.
In an interview with Sputnik radio, the head of the think tank “Independent Fuel Union” Grigory Bazhenov commented on this measure. “This is once again an attempt by administrative methods to make sure that the price of gasoline on the domestic market does not accelerate as it is accelerating now,” the expert believes.
The ban on the export of gasoline will not give a big effect
Bazhenov does not expect a significant effect from the ban. “Perhaps additional volumes of gasoline will go to the exchange for sale on the domestic market. To believe that these volumes will be significant means to be optimistic about the decisions made, ”the analyst believes. He suggested that the government is only “probing the ground” and “looking at what can come of it.”
The situation was also commented on by Petroleum Trading Managing Partner Maxim Dyachenko in an interview with TASS. “I think that the measure to restrict the export of gasoline can be used as an extreme measure. In case of some uncertainty. Taking into account the fact that they have restricted flights to Turkey and introduced long holidays in May, the demand for fuel within the country will increase, ”he says.
Due to non-working days from May 1 to May 10, oil workers will not be able to sell part of the volumes on the exchange … “If they can sell gasoline in May only on May 11, then they will receive payment only on May 18. And usually, by the 20th of the month, the entire monthly volume of fuel is already sold. That is, a refinery may have up to 60% of its volumes in limbo, “Dyachenko noted.
At the same time, the situation is the opposite for buyers. In anticipation of an increase in gasoline consumption in the regions, they must purchase sufficient volumes within a week before May 1. “In theory, there could be high volatility. On the one hand, buyers urgently need to buy a product this week. And if the volume of supply is not additionally increased, then the price may rise. Against the background of the surge, export bans may be introduced to cool prices, “the expert says.
In general, market participants believe that the restriction on fuel exports is unlikely to lead to an increase in supply in the domestic market. Most likely, oilmen will start exporting naphtha instead of gasoline. That is, the primary product of oil refining. European refineries buy naphtha for the production of the same gasoline. : ///
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